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Thoughts: Melvin Upton Goes To The Six



On Tuesday, Padres GM AJ Preller struck a deal with the Toronto Blue Jays, sending resurgent outfielder Melvin Upton, Jr. to the 6 in exchange for 19-year old Dominican RHP Hansel Rodriguez, continuing the dismantling of the ill-fated 2015 “win-now” Padres squad. Additionally, the Padres will pay all but 5 million of the remaining balance of Upton’s contract.

While Preller hit a home run by flipping bullpen-arm-turned-All-Star pitcher Drew Pomernanz to the Red Sox for consensus top 25 prospect Anderson Espinoza, Preller struck out on this deal.

For one, Melvin Upton was one of the few Padres players who possessed any sort of tangible value that approached that of an everyday player. At the time of the trade, his Baseball Reference Wins Above Replacement, or bWAR, was valued at 1.9, which essentially correlates to a solid starter- tied for second on the team with Yangervis Solarte. 

In return, the Padres received Hansel Rodriguez, who is essentially a fringe prospect. His Fangraph Future Value (FV) projection is a 40 on a 20-80 scale, essentially placing his MLB future in the back of a big league rotation or the bullpen. This isn’t necessarily a bad result, but Rodriguez is only 19 years old- there’s a whole litany of issues that could arise- issues that have derailed the careers of much more talented players. Rodriguez will likely arrive in San Diego anywhere from four to six years down the line if his development goes smoothly, but this is FAR from a sure thing. 

In all honestly, these two things wouldn’t even make this a bad trade- IF the Blue Jays had agreed to take on Melvin’s gargantuan contract- but instead, the Padres are paying almost all of it on Toronto's behalf. To put this in context, Upton is owed the balance of over 30 million dollars for the last two seasons of the five-year contract he signed with the Braves. The only motivation for dealing Upton would have been the financial freedom afforded to the Padres by finding a team to absorb his contract- but alas, this is sadly not the case. The Padres are only saving five million dollars (how absurd this statement might sound to an average person is fully acknowledged), which will only allow Preller to plug a few holes in the roster with marginal talent.

It’s not like Upton was an incompetent player with the Padres. In fact, he was in the midst of a season that kinda-sorta-dare-I-say-it resembled a career revival.  He was even having a better season than his All-Star brother Justin, outpacing the latter in almost every major offensive statistic. Now, he was never going to be the potential 30-30 threat he once was at the start of the decade, but he had certainly been a serviceable starting outfielder, and a fan-favorite to boot. 

Almost unbelievably, Melvin Upton, Jr. will be the Upton brother everyone in this town will remember the fondest- especially because of that one really, really, really, really cool time he made the catch of the year. Let's watch that again.



Ahhh. That was fun. Good luck with everything in Toronto, Mel. Give Drake our warmest San Diego regards.

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