He's done it again, folks.
Early this morning, AJ Preller reached an agreement with the Miami Marlins, sending pitchers Andrew Cashner, Colin Rea, and Tayron Guerrero in exchange for first baseman Josh Naylor, and pitchers Jarred Cosart, Carter Capps, and Luis Castillo.
While Cashner had been the frequent subject of trade rumors over the past month or so, Rea's inclusion is a surprise. As many on Twitter have noted, AJ Preller has now traded away four of the five members of the Padres Opening Day starting rotation- Tyson Ross is the sole survivor. Ross, however, likely would've been traded too, if he hadn't missed nearly the entire season with a shoulder/ankle issue. As it stands now, the Padres rotation going forward will likely be comprised of Cosart, Christian Friedrich, Luis Perdomo, Edwin Jackson, and freakin' Paul Clemens. Obviously, an already-mediocre pitching staff just lost two of its more consistent arms. However, the Padres received considerable short and long term value for an injury-prone Andrew Cashner (who is a pending free-agent to boot) and a career #4-5 starting pitcher pitcher in Colin Rea.
Let's start with Jarred Cosart. Once a heralded prospect with the Phillies, he was sent to Houston in the Hunter Pence trade, and then later flipped to the Marlins in 2014. According to Fangraphs, Cosart features a fastball that has sat around 94 MPH, a cutter and sinker that also reach speeds of around 92-94 MPH, as well as a curveball and an occasional changeup. His only full season came in 2014, which was split between the Astros and the Marlins, where he logged 180.1 innings, 13 wins, a 3.69 ERA, and a solid 2.5 RA9-WAR.
Does that "former-top-prospect-who-bounced-around-needs-a-change-of-scenery" narrative sound familiar? It kinda sounds like Drew Pomeranz, right? Well, unfortunately, Cosart isn't Pomeranz- he doesn't miss nearly as many bats (compare their respective 5.62 and 8.6 K/9), has more issues with control (again, compare their respective 4.26 and 3.8 BB/9), and, while still a former top prospect in his own right, Cosart lacks the elite prospect pedigree Pomeranz had. There's likely less for pitching coach Darren Balsley to work with here, but if he can help Cosart overcome the rough start he's had to this season, it wouldn't be unreasonable to think that Cosart can become a solid #3 starter in the Padres rotation- and because he's under team control until 2020, he has a lot of time to do so. Ultimately, if he can preform around, or even somewhat above his 2014 numbers, Cosart will be a very valuable member of the Padres rotation indeed.
Carter Capps is the other Major League piece coming to the Padres in the deal. He's currently out for the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March, but Capps was one of the most dominant relievers in baseball last year. He had an exceptional 43.2 K-BB%, and absurd 16.84 K/9, a 1.16 ERA (with an even lower 1.10 FIP), all of which is backed up by a 98 MPH fastball and that really bizarre hop-step delivery. The million dollar question though, is if he'll be the same player upon his return. As we all know, relievers are volatile and unpredictable, and Capps' absurd numbers in his breakout season are only through a small 31.0 IP sample size. If he does return to form though (or even just something resembling it), Capps could be a dominant set-up man- something we haven't seen the likes of since Heath Bell- or potentially even push Brandon Maurer out of the closer role.
The top Marlins prospect acquired is first baseman Josh Naylor. Drafted at number 12 overall in the 2015 MLB draft, the tool that will clearly propel Naylor to The Show is his bat. According MLBpipeline.com, Naylor has plus-plus power, and describes his bat as "[having] the potential to be special". At six feet tall and 225 pounds, he's drawn comparisons to Prince Fielder. Heck, the kid even LOOKS like Prince from a distance. Because of his nonexistent speed (MLBpipeline scored him a 20 on a 20-80 scale) Naylor is only a defensive fit at first base- he would probably be more valuable in the AL as a DH. It's also hard to see how he would fit into the Padres future plans, seeing that Wil Myers, as the face of the franchise, will be entrenched at first base for (hopefully) a long, long time. However, if his bat truly lives up to the hype, he could force Myers to move back to the outfield, or be a valuable trade chip once the Padres start contending again.
Finally, the Padres received prospect Luis Castillo. No, not the former Chargers defensive end. Nor is he the former Mets second baseman. This Luis Castillo is a 23 year old pitcher from the Dominican Republic. This Luis Castillo also has a high 90s fastball, and a potential plus slider. Castillo, while normally projected as a reliever in the Majors, was converted to a starter by the Marlins in high single-A, where according to MLBpipeline, he "made strides in both his pitchability and durability" this season. Indeed, Castillo is no mere throw-in. While it's hard to project what kind of starting pitcher he would be in the majors just yet, it's not too hard to dream on a kid with an excellent fastball, a good slider, and significantly improving secondary offerings and control. At the very least, he could be a hard-throwing (and potentially dominant) reliever at the highest level.
I liked this trade before, but it seems SIGNIFICANTLY better to me after I wrote it out. It's hard not to consider the upside each player the Padres acquired has, huh?
Folks, AJ Preller has struck again- and this is some of his best work.
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