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Projecting the 2017 Padres: Catchers



Over the next week or two, I'll be writing a series of articles that'll focus on projecting the 2017 Padres roster. I'll start with the catchers.

In 2016, the Padres have primarily used Derek Norris and Christian Bethancourt behind the plate. Top prospect Austin Hedges, who is in the midst of a very strong season at Triple A El Paso, will likely join the roster in September as a call-up.

Norris, the subject of frequent trade rumors throughout the season, was not moved at the deadline, and while he remains a prime August trade candidate, for now, he will remain with the Padres for the rest of the season. Norris has made significant defensive strides this season, and according to Baseball Prospectus, has been a top 10 catcher in terms of defensive runs saved. Offensively, however, Norris has been absolutely abysmal. As of Sunday, Norris' batting average has dropped 10 points below the Mendoza Line, and his Fangraphs wRC+ is 61, nearly 40 points below league average.

Obviously, Norris' value is at an all time low. AJ Preller, however, would still be smart to move him- even if moving him entails receiving a minimal return. Simply put, both Bethancourt and Hedges are better options than Norris going forward. That's why my first prediction for the 2017 Padres is that Derek Norris will be traded for a player to be named later. Odds are, this PTBNL will be a low-level minor leaguer who will never make the big leagues. There is simply not a huge market for him, although it wouldn't be hard to find a taker looking for a potential bounce-back player at a low price. At this point, it's probably in both the Padres and Norris's best interests to part ways.

That brings me to my second prediction: Austin Hedges will be the Padres starting catcher in 2017.

Starter: Austin Hedges

 Austin Hedges has been one of the top prospects in the Padres system since he was drafted in 2011. He's widely considered the most defensively advanced Padres catching prospect since Benito Santiago, but his bat has always been a question mark.

While Hedges struggled offensively in his MLB debut last year, he's had a breakout season in Triple A, hitting 17 home runs, batting .345, and getting on base at a .384 clip.

Clearly, he will regress in the Major Leagues, as the Pacific Coast League in which Hedges plays is one of the most hitter-friendly leagues in all of Minor League Baseball. His progress with the bat, though, is undeniable. If he's good for around 10 home runs and a .275 average at the highest level, I'd consider that a pretty good start. However, seeing as Hedges' bat is still unproven in the Majors, this is no certainty.

What is a certainty, however, is that Hedges will provide gold-glove caliber defense from day 1.

Baseball Prospectus calls Hedges "one of the most advanced receivers of his generation", and lauds his "excellent footwork" and "advanced" pitch framing skills- all things that will make him a valuable asset.

Because of this, even if Hedges' bat doesn't quite come around next year, his defensive ability alone makes him a better option to start than Bethancourt.

Bench: Christian Bethancourt

 Bethancourt was acquired from the Braves in a trade for pitcher Casey Kelly, and has primarily backed up Derek Norris this season.

He's been okay with the bat this year, hitting .257. He's also got some power, hitting 5 home runs in under 150 at bats. If he had a full seasons-worth of plate-appearences, he could be a solid contributor.

Defensively, however, he hasn't been great. Most advanced metrics indicate he's a replacement level player in that regard. However, his versatility is a plus- Andy Green has occasionally used Bethancourt in the outfield and even second base.

If Hedges struggles offensively, Bethancourt may see some more at-bats. In interleague play, he will likely be the designated hitter as well.

Bottom line, Bethancourt will be a solid backup, with his primary asset being his offense and ability to play the outfield.

OH YEAH. He's also one of the best position-player pitchers I've ever seen. He'll certainly log some mop-up duty innings in blow-out games.

Bethancourt can hit 95 on the gun but change speeds like no other- his nasty eephus pitch is a sight to behold:


Wow.

Next, I'll be focusing on the Padres 2017 infield.

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