The Padres Overplay Their Hand

The trade deadline came and went- and much to my surprise, Brad Hand is still a Padre.

There were so many "Hand" puns to choose from for the title, and after much deliberation, I settled on the poker-related one because I thought it seemed apt for today. BUT... as soon as I started writing, I felt oddly compelled to incorporate the runner-ups into the prose of my article somehow.

However, to spare you, the valued reader, from a barrage of subpar wordplay, I'll just list them below and get them out of the way now. Let me know which ones are your favorite!

• Apparently an arm and a leg is not worth a Hand.
• AJ Preller decides not to Hand away his best tradable asset for nothing.
• Is one in the Hand worth two in the bush? AJ Preller rebuffs offers from rival GMs. 
• Raise your Hand if you thought the Padres wouldn't trade anyone today.
• Were the Padres demands for a top prospect today a bit heavy Handed?
• Padres take a Hands-off approach to the deadline today.
• Is AJ missing out on a good deal? If so, the blood is on his Hands.
• A Hands-down shocker: the Padres keep Brad Hand.
• The Padres stand pat at the deadline- did rival GMs force AJ Preller's Hand?

Thanks for indulging me. Anyways, is keeping Hand a good move? Maybe.

AJ Preller maintained an absurdly high asking price for Brad Hand (really, Gelyber Torres?), and if Jerry Crasnick is to be believed, teams weren't even offering any of their top ten prospects in exchange for Hand, which frankly, is a total joke; AJ would be right to rebuff those offers if that was the case. I don't know how reliable that report is, but either way the Padres did not receive an offer they deemed acceptable for a player of Hand's caliber, who was by far the best reliever on the trade market and had multiple years of control left before he hit free agency. 

In his excellent Fangraphs piece, Jeff Sullivan makes a strong case for Brad Hand being similar to Andrew Miller, and should have commanded comparable value. In theory, Hand should have netted a top 100 prospect, just as Justin Wilson did for the Tigers, who acquired Jeimer Candelario from the Cubs- MLB.com ranked the latter the 92nd best prospect in the game. The Padres probably banked on some team panicking as the deadline loomed and the market for relief pitching dried up, overpaying for Hand in the process. My thought was that a team would call AJ's bluff and Hand would be dealt for somewhat more than what his fair market value would constitute, but not too high above it. It's clear now, though, that AJ wasn't bluffing. 

Do I know what AJ Preller was actually offered? Nope, but my bet is that AJ was probably offered a prospect ranked anywhere from #50-100 overall- but as mentioned, it was clear that AJ Preller was probably looking to receive a guy who was among the top 25 in baseball. Brad Hand is definitely worth a top prospect- but maybe not the top prospect in the game. 

Now that Hand has apparently assumed the closer role upon the departure of Brandon Mauer, the former certainly has a chance to improve his considerable trade value should he excel in his new role. Keeping Hand could be a very good move if a team, enthused by Hand's success as a closer, acquiesces to AJ's demands and sends the Padres a top prospect in return. Remember when AJ held on to Craig Kimbrel at the deadline, much to the chagrin of Padres fans? Waiting until the offseason to deal Kimbrel worked out pretty well- we got Manuel Margot, Logan Allen, and Carlos Asuaje in return.

Or....... Hand could wilt under the pressures of his new role, or his high workload this season could catch up to him, resulting in a value-sapping DL stint. Hand has been remarkably consistent this year, so I'd anticipate the latter is more likely to happen. This is precisely what occurred when AJ decided to hold on to Tyson Ross at the same deadline- Ross blew out his arm and the Padres let him go last offseason for nothing. 

So, to say the least, the Padres are gambling on Brad Hand's future success and health here. Will it pay off? 

We'll have a lot of time on our Hands before we find out.