MLB draft #szn is upon us. The Padres, for the first time since 2009, are drafting third overall.
Having such a high draft position is somewhat of a rare situation for the Padres. Considering how much of the media and the causal fan consider the Padres to be one of the most consistently bad teams in baseball, they've only drafted in the top five- signifying the worst of the worst- six times since 1988. Over their last 30 draft picks in the first round, their average draft position has been 14.6, which is a pretty impressive achievement of baseball mediocrity.
Of course, the Padres' track record with top 5 draft picks hasn't exactly been stellar. With the exception of Andy Benes (who ranks 5th all-time in WAR among Padres pitchers), all of their top 5 draft picks failed to make a significant impact at the major league level. For reference, their most recent third overall pick, Donovan Tate, is now a walk-on quarterback at the University of Arizona. The Padres are also paying his tuition. But I digress.
Anyways, it's kinda essential that AJ Preller hits a proverbial home run with the third overall pick that he owns this year, because as mentioned, these opportunities don't come around all that often for the Padres.
There are five players in this draft that are widely expected to be drafted in the top five. I can say with 100% certainty one of these fellas will be drafted by the Padres at #3. However, the really fun part about this draft is that nobody really seems to know what order those five young men will be drafted in- so the Padres could, in theory, end up with any one of them. With that being said, let's take a look at some of the pros and cons of each player that could receive a phone call from AJ Preller on June 12th.
(Authors note: because I'm too stingy to subscribe to Baseball America, all of the grades come from the free MLB Pipeline "Draft Top 100"- so most of my opinions are put forth based off of the opinions of one scout. Heed my writings below at your own peril.)
(Second author's note: Most major league teams and scouts grade players on a 20-80 scale. I've copied and pasted the explanation of the 20-80 scale from MLB Pipeline for your reference: "20-30 is well below average, 40 is below average, 50 is average, 60 is above average and 70-80 is well above average.")
Hunter Greene, RHP/SS, Notre Dame High School (California)
Pros: Sports Illustrated proclaimed him the LeBron James of baseball and the second coming of Babe Ruth, simultaneously. Greene, as many have noted, is a first round pick as both a pitcher and a shortstop, but will more than likely stay on the mound. Greene's main attraction is a fastball that can easily exceed 100 MPH, and will stay in the high 90s even late into starts. He throws two breaking balls, both of which can be league above average to average as he develops. Greene has stopped pitching for the year, purportedly in attempt to sabotage his draft stock in order to fall to the Padres at #3- he would be a marquee prospect that the Padres have lacked for so long. Listens to Travis Scott.
Cons: Sports Illustrated proclaimed him the LeBron James of baseball and the second coming of Babe Ruth, simultaneously. That seems like a pretty high bar to clear. I seem to be the only one that's somewhat bored by the fact that his calling card is a 100 MPH fastball. His other offerings, as well as his command, are just average- ideally, I'd prefer that the secondary pitches of a pitcher the Padres draft this high to have a higher ceiling than Greene currently has.
Likelihood the Padres will get a chance to draft him/will draft him: 40%/100%. The Twins and the Reds, who draft at #1 and #2 respectively, will take very strong looks at him- and at this point, I would bet money that he won't be on the board when it comes time for the Padres to draft at #3. However, it's not impossible for Greene to slide to the Padres- as evidenced by the growing number of mock drafts (put whatever stock in those that you will) that show him falling to the Friars, seemingly showing that his attempts to slide to us at #3 are working, to some degree. Greene's interest in the Padres is reciprocated by the front office- he ends up available at third overall, you better believe AJ Preller will pull the trigger and draft him.
Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt
Pros: Wright features a grade 60 fastball, and also features three grade 55 secondary pitches- a slider, changeup, and curveball. Recently, has had strong outings for Vanderbilt that assuaged concerns among teams about a rough start to the college season. He has a high floor, Wright seems to be a good bet to at least be a #3 starter in the big leagues, with a good amount of projection still remaining- MLB Pipeline believes his ceiling is at the top of an MLB rotation. Wright is likely to move through the minor leagues quickly- my bet is that he'll be in The Show sometime by 2018, and by 2019 at the very latest.
Cons: Wright has had some struggles with command- MLB Pipeline notes that these issues may be his biggest barriers to reaching his full potential. As noted, Wright's season at Vanderbilt got off to a rough start, which temporarily hurt his draft stock.
Likelihood the Padres will get a chance to draft him/will draft him: 30%/10%. There seems to be quite a lot of traction behind the idea that Wright will end up being the 1st overall pick. The Twins are reportedly big fans of his floor/ceiling combination. However, if he is available at #3, it also seems quite unlikely the Padres will draft him- ESPN's Keith Law notes that Wright is not one of the players AJ Preller is "in" on.
Brendan McKay, LHP/1B, Louisville
Pros: Like Greene, McKay profiles as a first round pick as both a position player and a pitcher. As a pitcher, McKay's best pitch is a grade 60 curveball, and features a solid fastball that sits in the low-to-mid 90s. MLB Pipeline notes that McKay's command is "so good", he can remain effective even as his velocity drops later into games. As a first baseman, MLB describes his ceiling as that of a ".300 hitter with 20 home runs a season", who can play solid defense at the hot corner. As with Wright, McKay will likely move through the minor leagues quickly, and could contribute to a big league club very soon.
Cons: McKay doesn't really have a lot of weaknesses- he seems to be an especially well-rounded on the mound. If he decides to remain a position player, his most prominent drawback is that his bottom-of-the-scale speed will prevent him from playing in the outfield, thereby limiting him to playing first base in the majors. As a position player and a pitcher, his ultimate ceiling may not be as high as other top talents in this draft, but he does seem to have one of the highest floors of any player in the draft.
Likelihood the Padres will get a chance to draft him/will draft him: 50%/50%. In mock drafts, McKay has gone anywhere from the first overall pick, all the way to the fifth pick. The Reds had previously been said to prefer McKay to Hunter Greene, but as the draft nears closer, more mock drafts indicate that sentiment is starting to change, with more and more showing the Reds taking the latter at #2. There is a very real chance McKay will be on the board when the Padres draft at #3. Considering the Padres previously drafted McKay in 2014 (all the way back in the 34th round!), it's probably pretty safe to say the team is still interested. Whether or not McKay gets the call from AJ Preller depends on how strongly the latter values the higher upside of prep players like Mackenzie Gore and Royce Lewis.
Mackenzie Gore, LHP, Whiteville High School (North Carolina)
Pros: Gore has dominated high school baseball; as a junior, he posted an absurd 0.08 ERA with 174 strikeouts in 83.3 innings. While already viewed as a first round pick prior to his senior season, his stock skyrocketed after his fastball jumped into the high 90s. Gore, the Gatorade National Player of the Year, has very advanced offerings for a high school pitcher, with a potential plus-plus fastball, a plus curveball, and a slider and changeup that have plus potential. His strong command of these pitches round out the profile of a pitcher who has top-of-the-rotation potential.
Cons: As with any high school pitcher, there is obviously an injury risk involved. He also will have to go through more refinement than some of the college players the Padres could draft- as such, Gore will not reach the big leagues as quickly as some of the more mature members of his draft cohort.
Likelihood the Padres will get a chance to draft him/will draft him: 100%/55%: It's unanimously believed that Wright, Greene, and/or McKay will be drafted with the first two picks. The Padres represent the highest Gore will be drafted- and a slight majority of mock drafts I've read predict that Gore will be indeed be heading to San Diego. In the event that Hunter Greene is off the board, I'd give Gore the edge over Royce Lewis, as the former fits with AJ Preller's plan of stocking the farm system with young, high upside pitching prospects.
Royce Lewis, SS/OF, JSerra Catholic High School (California)
Pros: Lewis, hailing from the same alma mater as Padres catcher Austin Hedges, has five-tool potential. His best tool is his grade 70 speed, which makes him a threat on the base paths and allows him to have great range as a defender at shortstop and in the outfield. He also has a solid hit tool, which MLB Pipeline grades at 55, but his current power is graded at a below average 45. If it stays that way, he projects as a top-of-the-order bat. However, other scouts believe he can add more strength as he matures, and if he does indeed hit for power- watch out. If everything goes right in his development, Lewis could potentially be one of baseball's most valuable players at a premium position.
Cons: There are some concerns that Lewis's arm strength will prevent him from playing shortstop at the major league level, necessitating a move to the outfield. Keith Law recommends that whatever team drafts him immediately move him to center field to expedite his development. Again, as with any high school player, the transition to the pros will involve a steeper learning curve than it would for a college talent- so whatever team drafts Lewis will need patience as he develops.
Likelihood the Padres will get a chance to draft him/will draft him: 100%/45%: As with Gore, the Padres represent the highest Lewis will be picked in the draft- and indeed, many mock drafts project Lewis to the Padres. As mentioned earlier, if Hunter Greene is off the board, Gore is my slight favorite to be drafted by the Friars, but Lewis is a very close second. It really depends on who AJ Preller believes has the higher ceiling.
My Thoughts:
So yeah, we've established that this is a pretty important pick for the Padres. Getting a bona fide future star will be huge for this organization going forward.
Now, time to speculate! If I were the GM, I would probably expect to be choosing from McKay, Lewis, and Gore. I would love to draft Hunter Greene, but odds are he won't be available when it comes time for my Padres to make a pick. So with that in mind, I would probably go with Mackenzie Gore.
I love Royce Lewis's upside and the relative assurance that Brendan McKay will be a productive major leaguer, but I think Gore's highly advanced skills for a high school pitcher make him the most likely to be a star out of the three. Baseball America seems to agree; they compared Gore to a young Cole Hamels. Sign me up.
However, that's just my opinion. Unfortunately, I'm not calling the shots (yet)- AJ Preller is, and if there's one thing we know about AJ Preller, it's that trying to guess what he's thinking about doing is as easy as hitting Hunter Greene's 101 MPH fastball.
It doesn't hurt to try, though. Go Padres.
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