HAPPY OPENING DAY! In mere hours, we'll have Padres baseball again.
And there's something interesting about Padres baseball being back this time, too. For the first time since 2004- when Petco Park opened- there's a genuine sense optimism about the direction of this franchise. Even national pundits that have routinely disrespected San Diego sports unanimously agree that a bright future awaits the Padres.
On this Padres roster, you'll see young faces like Dinelson Lamet and Manny Margot, who are primed for breakout years after solid rookie seasons. You'll also see veteran leaders in Wil Myers, Chase Headley, and Tyson Ross.
Also, I'm not sure if you guys checked, but A.J. Preller signed some guy by the name of Eric Hosmer. I don't know if he's any good or not (more on that part later), so we'll see. But I digress.
And of course, as Scott Boras infamously stated, the Padres farm system is "a volcano of hot-talent lava.... [waiting] to turn into Major League rock". Questionable hyperbolic metaphors aside, A.J. Preller has assembled an entire cohort of young and talented prospects who will begin to make their debuts in San Diego in 2018.
With that being said- let's jump into a preview of what is likely to be the Padres 2018 Opening Day roster:
The Starting Lineup (per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com)
1. Manuel Margot, CF
2. Wil Myers, RF
3. Eric Hosmer, 1B
4. Jose Pirela, LF
5. Chase Headley, 3B
6. Carlos Asuaje, 2B
7. Freddy Galvis, SS
8. Austin Hedges, C
Obviously, the big addition here is Eric Hosmer. Remember when I made that "joke" in the intro about us not knowing if he's actually any good or not? Well, we really DON'T know if he's any good or not. He had a really good season last year, turning in a 4.1 win season according to Fangraphs (which translates to about 36 million dollars in value). He's also been really bad! He's had 3 seasons of being a replacement level player or worse, including in 2012, when he was worth about -1.7 wins to the Royals (which translates to about negative 18 million dollars in value!).
We really can't make (with any level of confidence, at least) predictions about Hosmer's on-field performance this year. He's just been SO INCONSISTENT. Anecdotally, he does seem to be a gravitating clubhouse leader, at least. This is pretty much the only guaranteed thing about Hosmer- but however much that actually impacts the final win-loss total remains to be seen.
Meyers, Margot, Pirela, Asujae, and Hedges are all holdovers from last year's squad. Myers' will look improve upon his 30 home run, 20 stolen base season. If he can avoid the extended midseason slump that he's been prone to in past years, he could potentially return to the All Star Game. Hedges, despite hitting 18 home runs last year, was otherwise a well below average hitter. His calling card remains his exceptional defense. Pirela was exceptional in his half-season debut with the Padres- showing newfound power to pair with his strong ability to hit for contact. He'll start the year in left field, which he'll share with Hunter Renfroe. After a torrid spring, Asuaje will be the Opening Day starter at second base. He'll likely split playing time with Cory Spangenberg. After a strong rookie season, Manuel Margot will man center field. An excellent defender, he also showed surprising power- hitting 10 home runs, but weather those gains will transfer to this season remains to be seen. Either way, Margot looks like a franchise cornerstone.
Chase Headley is back! During his initial tenure with the Padres, he was by FAR my favorite player because he would always, without fail, sign an autograph for everybody who wanted one before each game; getting a pre-game Headley autograph was my ritual from 2007 to 2014. Without hyperbole, Chase is SUCH A NICE DUDE, FORREAL. Even though I'm a little older now, I'm looking forward to restarting that ritual this season. Unfortunately, Chase Headley is also a little older now, too. His production has steadily declined since having an MVP caliber season with the Padres in 2012, and his return to Petco may only accelerate that decline. The Padres acquired Freddy Galvis from the Phillies, and he'll represent the most competent shortstop the team has had since Kahlil Greene. Galvis is durable and solid defensively, and has hit for moderate power in the past. Both Headley and Galvis are on 1-year contracts, so don't expect them to stick around past this season. Headley especially may be moved closer to the trade deadline to free up space for Asuaje or Spangenberg.
The Rotation
1. Clayton Richard
2. Joey "JoeyFuego" Lucchesi
3. Luis Perdomo
4. Bryan Mitchell
5. Tyson Ross
Richard will be the Opening Day starter. He wouldn't be a #1 starter anywhere else, but he's solid and dependable. Since returning to the Padres in 2015, he's transitioned into a skilled finesse pitcher who can generate ground balls. JoeyFuego, the first Padres prospect from the current farm system, will be making his debut tomorrow. A fourth-round pick in 2016, Lucchesi moved quickly through the system and had an excellent 2017. If everything goes to plan, we'll be seeing that man in Petco Park for a long time. Perdomo returns to the rotation, and will look to continue his development. If he can develop another pitch to compliment his sinker (which, per Fangraphs, he throws 60% of the time), he can be a #3 starter. Mitchell, who was the primary piece acquired in the Headley trade, will start the year in the rotation- and with a big fastball and solid secondary pitches, the team loves his potential. Finally, Tyson Ross returns to the rotation after spending a year with the Rangers. If he can stay healthy (which is a pretty major "if"), he could potentially be a major contributor to the team after a strong spring training. Once he returns from the disabled list, Dinelson Lamet will also be a major contributor to the Padres rotation- he's been hyped as a major potential breakout candidate.
The Bench
A.J. Ellis, C
Raffy Lopez, C
Cory Spangenberg, ULT
Christian Villanueva, 3B
Hunter Renfroe, OF
Matt Szczur, OF
After a strong spring, Lopez forced his way onto the team, which will carry three catchers on the team this year. The other catcher, Ellis, will provide veteran leadership and solid defense. Spangenberg has a very similar skill set to Asujae, and the two will split playing time at second base. If Headley is traded, Spangenberg may be inserted at third base. Villanueva will also provide further infield depth. Renfroe, despite his former top prospect status, will start the year on the bench. While he has prodigious power, his poor plate discipline suppressed his offensive performance. He'll be apart of a left field platoon with Pirela, and could permanently recapture the staring job if he shows significant improvement at the plate.
The Bullpen
LRP- Jordan Lyles
RP- Kyle McGrath
RP- Adam Cimber
RP- Craig Stammen
RP- Kazuhisa Makita
RP- Kirby Yates
CP- Brad Hand
There are a lot of enigmatic figures in the bullpen. Lyles, who signed a guaranteed Major League deal over the offseason, will be the long man. Should an injury arise in the rotation, Lyles will be the next man up. McGrath, Cimber, and Makita all have unorthodox deliveries that could confound opposing hitters. Coming from Japan, Makita especially has been a popular figure with his submarine delivery.
Finally, Brad Hand returns to the closer role after an excellent 2017 season. After relentless speculation that he would be traded leading up to last year's deadline, Hand signed a three year extension. Odds are, he won't be going anywhere for some time. So long as he stays healthy, expect Hand to continue being a shutdown closer this season.
Overall Thoughts
Things are changing in San Diego.
The team's calling card is their number one farm system in baseball, and expect to see the Padres promote some of their top prospects to the big leagues in 2018. Don't be surprised if you see any combination of Luis Urias, Fernando Tatis Jr., Cal Quantril, Eric Lauer, and/or playing in Petco Park this year.
However, don't discount the core that's already in place in the Majors: Margot, Hosmer, Myers, Hand, and Hedges could all be important contributors to the next Padres playoff team.
Despite fielding a highly inexperienced roster last year (literally, they had 3 players on the roster last year that never played above single A), the team still won over 70 games. The 2018 edition of the team, with veteran leadership and top prospects ready to contribute, will much better than its predecessor, so expect the Padres to improve on their win total this year, even if only by a handful of games.
Obviously, the NL-West is STACKED: the Dodgers are a perennial juggernaut, the Diamondbacks and the Rockies were playoff teams last year, and people (for some reason, I guess) think the Giants will be good, apparently (let's be real though, they're gonna be bad lol). So, needless to say, the Padres will likely face another losing season- but, as I said, expect tangible improvements.
With that said: my final, 100% accurate prediction for this year: I think the Padres will win 78 games this year, and finish fourth in the division. This will be the last losing season for some time.
Got that? I'm excited to see what's in store for this season. Go Padres.
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